Darren Bailey wins rematch bid against JB Pritzker in Illinois governor race

Voters in Illinois’ race for governor this fall will have a justifiable case of deja vu as Darren Bailey, the Republican Party’s unsuccessful 2022 nominee, will face off once again against two-term Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker. The question, to be answered Nov. 3, is whether the result this time also will be a case of deja vu. Bailey, a downstate farmer who was defeated by Pritzker by nearly 13 percentage points four years ago, defeated rivals Ted Dabrowski, James Mendick and Rick Heidner in Tuesday night’s GOP gubernatorial primary results. Unofficial totals with 86% of the expected vote counted showed Bailey winning with just under 54%, followed by Dabrowski’s 29%, Mendrick’s 10% and Heidner’s 8%. All of Bailey’s rivals contended the downstater’s poor 2022 general election showing demonstrated his unelectability and argued it as a case for their own chance to vie against Pritzker. But Bailey, who ran an unusually quiet, noncontroversial and chastened campaign compared with his effort four years ago, was able to win renomination based largely on name recognition, and the low-dollar, stumble-filled campaigns of his opponents. For the general election, one factor that is different this time is a deepened Illinois opposition to President Donald Trump, particularly in light of last year’s controversial and aggressive federal immigration raids, as well as sustained inflationary grocery costs and rising gas pump prices as a result of joint U.S.-Israeli military strikes on Iran. Bailey actively sought and won Trump’s endorsement for governor in his initial bid and was encouraged by the president to make a second run. But neither he or the other Republicans in the race, despite pledging fealty to Trump and support for his immigration actions, won a presidential endorsement. In speaking to supporters after being unopposed for renomination on the Democratic ballot, Pritzker made it clear he thinks he can meld a third-term candidacy while also pondering a potential 2028 White House bid by using Trump as a common campaign theme. Pritzker, a businessman and billionaire heir to the Hyatt hotels fortune who spent more than $350 million on his two previous runs for governor, referred to Trump on Tuesday as both “the carnival barker in chief” and “the commander in thief” and noted that unlike other states, “the seemingly unstoppable force of Trump’s unrestrained power met the immovable object of Illinoisans’ courage.” “Bailey wants to be the Donald Trump of Illinois,” Pritzker continued. “He wants to lower the minimum wage. He wants to take away a woman’s right to choose. He wants to continue the Trump tariff taxes on groceries. And his family still runs a school that uses a curriculum teaching that slavery wasn’t wrong and that women in the workforce have been harmful to America,” Pritzker told supporters, citing the Republican’s downstate Full Armor Christian Academy that he runs with his wife, Cindi. A charismatic evangelical Christian conservative from Xenia, Bailey downplayed the religious and conservative social beliefs, such as opposition to abortion, that had driven his previous campaign but turned off voters in the key Chicago suburbs. There also was a sympathy factor for Bailey following the deaths of his son Zachary, daughter-in-law Kelsey and grandchildren Vada Rose, 12, and Samuel, 7, in a helicopter accident in southeast Montana on Oct. 22, shortly after he announced he would run again. “Losing my son and his family, it changed me forever. It stripped away the noise and it clarified what truly matters. Faith, family, fighting for the people God places in your care. And that clarity is why this moment matters,” Bailey told supporters at a victory party in Springfield. “Illinois is hurting. Across this state, no matter where you live or who you voted for, people are feeling the same pressure. Families are working harder and falling further behind. Seniors are afraid to open their utility bills, parents are wondering if their kids are going to be able to afford to stay in Illinois.” Bailey continued upon a theme from four years ago that the wealthy Pritzker cannot relate to average voters in Illinois. “Pritzker has been telling Illinois families that higher taxes and higher fees and higher costs are necessary. Necessary for who? Not for you and not for him. While families are being taxed out of their homes, he lives in multiple mansions, hides his fortunes in offshore bank accounts and lectures working people about sacrifice,” Bailey said. “He raised fees, he let property taxes explode and then he told working families to tighten their belts. Illinois is less affordable because of JB Pritzker.” Bailey has blamed his first loss to Pritzker, in part, to residents in northern Illinois not understanding his rural downstate accent. “To my friends in Chicago, I know I’ve got a Southern accent. Some folks have said that I talk funny,” he said. “But from Carbondale to Wilmette, Quincy to Danville, one thing remains the same. Those bills in your mailbox, they don’t care about anyone’s accent. This is because this problem isn’t regional, it’s leadership.” Bailey, who in 2024 lost a primary challenge to veteran U.S. Rep. Mike Bost of Murphysboro, mounted his second bid for governor with a “mea culpa” tour, apologizing for terming Chicago a “hellhole” in his initial run and saying he now had a better appreciation of the city’s and suburban voters. Dabrowski of Wilmette, the former president of the Wirepoints conservative activist organization, was backed by some of the same people who supported Bailey’s 2022 run but deemed him unelectable this time. They included far-right radio talk show host and GOP political operative Dan Proft of Naples, Florida, and Jeanne Ives, a former state representative of Wheaton, who founded her own right-wing advocacy group. Dabrowski, a former bank executive, argued he could appeal to suburban voters because he and his running mate were “professionals,” an apparent reference to Bailey’s farming background. Proft, a paid Dabrowski consultant who sent another of the campaigns he has assisted down to defeat, used a social media post to degenerate the intelligence of Bailey supporters. “He is solely living off residual awareness from four years ago. His supporters come from two camps: (1) those who lack intellectual curiosity to investigate the race, and (2) those who are baffled by the plot twists in Jim Varney movies,” Proft posted. That prompted Bailey to say on social media that Dabrowski’s camp is “paying a single consultant $25,000 a month to call Illinois Republicans unintelligent and compare them to the Beverly Hillbillies is a window into how they really see this state.” In his campaign, Dabrowski showed little charisma. Instead, he resembled a life insurance salesman touting actuarial tables, presenting the equivalent of PowerPoint presentations to potential voters, displaying number-filled charts and graphs about Illinois spending. He vowed to declare a “safety” emergency and use gubernatorial executive orders to overturn state laws blocking local law enforcement cooperation with federal immigration agents who lacked a judicial warrant and creating cashless bail for nonviolent offenders. But such a pledge was of dubious legal authority since past emergency declarations by governors dealt with medical reasons, such as the pandemic. Heidner, of Barrington Hills, a real estate developer and video gambling firm operator, made a late entry into the race, ran a few TV commercials, and sought to convince voters that they needed a businessman to run the state. He offered taxpayer-funded tax credits to attract business with a goal of lowering taxes. But Heidner also had problems understanding how state government functions. And he came off as an aggrieved businessman after Pritzker blocked the sale of property in Tinley Park that Heidner proposed for a horseracing track and casino following a Tribune report about his past connections with reputed members of organized crime. “I have zero ties to organized crime,” he said at a recent debate. Heidner also apologized for making past donations to Democratic politicians, including former Cook County State’s Attorney Kim Foxx and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson. He explained he saw the money he gave to Johnson as an entry into discussing bringing legalized video gambling into Chicago with the mayor — which Dabrowski said appeared to be “pay-to-play politics.” Mendrick, the two-term DuPage County sheriff from Woodridge, was the first candidate to enter the GOP contest but gained little widespread traction. Cash-limited to social media videos, he often sounded like he was on a grade-school field trip when he visited downstate locations and marveled that “you could travel seven hours and not leave Illinois.” Avidly opposed to immigrants, Mendrick echoed the call of the widely debunked, white nationalist Great Replacement Theory, contending “we are being replaced” by an immigrant population. He also showed support for another debunked theory involving “constitutional sheriffs” which wrongly holds that sheriffs are the preeminent constitutional authority in their jurisdiction, even above the court system.