LONDON — Keir Starmer has failed to stop disgruntled MPs from plotting his demise — and the contagion is spreading up the party’s ranks.
Confusion and indecision remain his greatest protectors — but there are several ways in which Britain could lose yet another prime minister.
Starmer’s Labour Party was roundly rejected by voters across England, Wales and Scotland in elections last week, and the blow to his authority has been grave. The prime minister used what was seen as a make-or-break speech on Monday to warn that botching the massive majority he won less than two years ago will put the country on a “very dark path” towards Nigel Farage’s leadership.
Minutes after he stopped speaking, the calls from MPs for him to resign resumed. At the time of writing on Monday evening, POLITICO’s count had increased to more than 60 MPs — and ministerial aides were starting to add to the public calls, in a sign this may only be going in one direction.
His saving grace — for now — would seem to be that Catherine West, the backbencher who threatened to launch a stalking horse leadership bid designed to swiftly break Labour’s deadlock, ended up backing down on Monday.
Yet efforts to topple Starmer are far for from over. Here are the avenues that could see him ousted.
1) MPs force Starmer to set an exit timetable
West shied away from an immediate bid, something that would’ve drawn the serious leadership contenders out of their state of unreadiness. But the former minister did deploy a secondary challenge — writing to colleagues asking for them to call on Starmer to set events in motion so a new leader can be elected in September.
It’s a more bloodless approach, aimed at convincing Starmer to stand aside gracefully. And it’s one that some senior MPs have in recent days have been coalescing around.
Labour rifts would undoubtedly be ripped wide open in a contest that followed, but at least the eviction of the PM from office would be more orderly.
West told POLITICO that she will inform party leadership of how much backing her plan has if she exceeds the support of more than 81 colleagues. But there is nothing in the Labour rulebook that means this number would formally trigger any action — and colleagues have been dismayed by a chaotic approach to this imperfect putsch.
“It won’t move things along, encourage others, or anything else. And she’s retreated from her position less than 24 hours ago,” said one disgruntled MP who wants Starmer gone.
A second added: “I think she [West] got sunstroke campaigning in the locals. She bottled it and it doesn’t inspire faith.”
It’s been a chaotic few days for this strand of plotting.
First West lost some confidence by dropping her stalking horse leadership bid. Then she sowed fresh discord by suggesting she’d be speeding up the timetable — just as onlookers started to interpret her move as beneficial to the would-be challenger who’s furthest away from being able to stand: Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, who still needs to find a way into parliament.
More urgent pressure could come from closer to home.
2) The Cabinet says go
Labour backbenchers and junior ministers are already venting frustration that they’re being left to agitate for Starmer’s ouster. They believe that it’s their senior colleagues in the Cabinet who should be telling him his time’s up.
There had been private conversations among some of the PM’s closest advisers that he should trigger a reshuffle in the wake of the election. But it would seem his lack of strength thwarted that idea.
In public, the Cabinet has rallied in support. In private, there’s consternation — and it would seem near-impossible for Starmer to survive being told by his most powerful ministers that enough is enough.
Energy Secretary Ed Miliband is seen as a king-maker for the soft-left faction that dominates the Labour Party. The former Labour leader, who resigned after he lost the 2015 election, wields particular power around the Cabinet table because he was one of Starmer’s earliest political champions.
His aides have only disputed in the mildest terms reports that Miliband told the PM last month he should consider setting out a departure schedule, with Miliband fearful a damaging leadership contest could be unleashed in the wake of the elections.
Now the carnage of losing more than 1,460 councillors in England, and control of the Welsh Senedd for the first time since its inception in 1999, is the PM’s reality.
Westminster is watching for Miliband and other allies to make a more forceful case to Starmer — and the trickle of ministerial aides resigning Monday night only makes this more likely. Tuesday morning’s regular Cabinet meeting will present a prime opportunity.
3) A rival squashes the stasis to go over the top
The Cabinet minister being most closely observed right now is Wes Streeting. The health secretary is one of the big three Labour figures seen as Starmer’s likely successor.
But none of the contenders right now seem either willing or able to make the first move. For one thing, preening for the top job is typically looked down upon in the Labour movement. And the telegenic Streeting is often suspected of this.
His association with Peter Mandelson — whose deeply controversial appointment as ambassador to the U.S. despite a friendship with Jeffrey Epstein added fuel to Starmer’s crisis — is another barrier for Streeting. And his position on the right of the party means his stock with a left-wing selectorate is low.
But that still puts him in a better position than his two main rivals.
Angela Rayner is still trying to resolve the tax issue that forced her to resign as deputy prime minister in September.
Her plain-speaking approach and nods to a more radical agenda make her popular among the Labour faithful. But the tax issues regarding her £800,000 seaside flat present her with two major challenges.
First is the charge among sections of the public that she is not so different from the political class they distrust anyway. Second is that, with the tax authority HM Revenue & Customs investigation into her taxes still not settled, she could yet be fined for what she has always insisted was an error in resolving her complex affairs.
Ideally, Rayner needs to buy time to overcome the issue and win the trust of the public. For now, she is signaling support for another rival: Andy Burnham.
The Greater Manchester mayor ditched parliament for the north west in 2017, dispensing of his eligibility to run for the leadership with it.
Burnham has managed to gain support across the board in the Labour Party, with left-wingers backing him even if his service in Tony Blair’s government links him to the party’s right.
His time presiding over a more left-wing base in Manchester has allowed him to make decisions more popular with Labour’s core. Away from Westminster, he also avoided getting into the factional infighting as the centrists successfully severed the left’s grip on power.
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