The Federal Reserve is a sprawling bureaucracy, averse to change. With that in mind, the latest FOMC meeting and press conference — the first under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh — came as a pleasant surprise.
The Fed held its target for the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%. While that decision itself was routine (markets had treated it as a near-certainty), the circumstances were anything but. The post-meeting statement was among the shortest in decades; the forward guidance language that long told markets what to expect was gone, and Warsh declined to submit his own forecasts for the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).
June 20, 2026 at 10:31 AM
Opinion: Trump picked Kevin Warsh to cut rates. The new Fed chief just told us he has other plans.
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5 marketsWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.5% or lower before 2027?
Polymarket
Vol: $9.0kLiq: $0
Impact
9/10
Volatility
low
Macro
high
Risk
low
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.75% or lower before 2027?
Polymarket
Vol: $397Liq: $6.8k
Impact
5/10
Volatility
high
Macro
high
Risk
high
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027?
Polymarket
Vol: $100.9kLiq: $7.6k
Impact
4/10
Volatility
medium
Macro
high
Risk
medium
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027?
Polymarket
Vol: $9.8kLiq: $4.8k
Impact
5/10
Volatility
medium
Macro
high
Risk
high
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027?
Polymarket
Vol: $126.3kLiq: $8.8k
Impact
2/10
Volatility
medium
Macro
high
Risk
medium