After Callais and Virginia, Republicans are ahead in Trump’s gerrymandering war

President Donald Trump’s gerrymandering war of 2025-26 has taken several twists and turns. But Republicans now appear poised to emerge with an advantage. That reality is taking shape after last month’s U.S. Supreme Court ruling spurred a slew of southern red states to start the process of drawing new GOP-friendly maps, and after Virginia’s high court struck down the state’s Democratic-backed map Friday. Those twin blows mean this fall’s midterms appear unlikely to be fought out on a level playing-field, undermining hopes for a fair election. As public opinion began to turn on him and his party last summer, President Donald Trump urged GOP-led states to gerrymander their congressional maps as aggressively as possible. Republicans in Texas, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Ohio have already answered that call. And, spurred by the Supreme Court’s Callais ruling, now Alabama, Louisiana, and South Carolina seem likely to join them ahead of November’s midterms. Combined, those redraws could net the GOP 16 to 18 districts, depending on how aggressive they decide to be in Louisiana and Alabama. Democrats responded in California, potentially gaining five seats. And they picked up another one in Utah’s court-ordered redistricting, for a total of six. But their attempt to redraw Virginia’s map to add four more was blocked by the state supreme court Friday. So, despite recent suggestions that the Trump-driven gerrymandering contest could backfire on the GOP, U.S. House Republicans currently seem likely to emerge 10 to 12 seats ahead of where they would’ve been before the redraws. While Democrats may still win control of the House in November (and perhaps the Senate as well) a rockier path now stands before them. Here’s the quick breakdown: Potential Republican gains Alabama: 1-2 seats Florida: 4 seats Louisiana: 1-2 seats Missouri: 1 seat North Carolina: 1 seat Ohio: 2 seats Tennessee: 1 seat Texas: 5 seats Total: 16-18 Republican seats Potential Democratic gains: California: 5 seats Utah: 1 seat Total: 6 Democratic seats But plenty of caveats remain The post-Callais redraws will all face lawsuits, so a few could be blocked before November. Multiple lawsuits have been filed against Florida’s new congressional map, alleging that it violates the state constitution’s ban on partisan gerrymandering, which was adopted by voters in a 2010 referendum.And all of the post-Callais states face lawsuits challenging their efforts to suspend primary elections and redraw in “emergency” legislative sessions. Perhaps more importantly: 2026 is shaping up to be a Democratic wave election, even despite the GOP’s gerrymanders. Polls show Trump hitting record low approval ratings; a Pew Research Center survey released last week showed just 34% of Americans approved of his performance. If it’s a strong Democratic year, some of the new gerrymanders will likely fall short. It’s highly unlikely that any of the states accidentally drew a “dummymander” — a new map that backfires completely and loses the redistricting party seats. But it could mean that Texas and Florida’s maps lead to gains of only four or five GOP seats between them, rather than the predicted nine. It’s already too late for a few GOP states to redraw maps ahead of the midterms — Mississippi held its primary on March 10 — while others, like Indiana, declined to join the redistricting rat race. No matter what happens in 2026, more states on both sides will be expected to redraw maps for maximum partisan gain ahead of the 2028 primaries. Virginia will undoubtedly try again — the state supreme court held the rushed referendum process was the problem, not the redistricting. If Democrats abandon their qualms about eliminating majority-minority districts in states where they enjoy large majorities, like New York, New Jersey and Illinois, the gerrymandering war may ultimately reach an impasse, with neither side enjoying a significant edge. Blue states have been relatively slow in joining the gerrymandering fight because many had passed state laws restricting partisan maps or empowering nonpartisan commissions with redistricting. Democratic-dominated states are now looking to repeal or suspend those laws — like Virginia and California did — so they can authorize new maps. But the redraws won’t be limited to just Congress — state and local districts will be remade in the wake of Callais, squelching minority voters’ voices across the nation. While Alabama has already begun a state senate redraw this year, most states will likely begin those efforts after the midterms. Republican redraws already in place for midterms Texas Congressional delegation today: 25 R – 12 D (1 vacancy) (65.8%-31.6%) Potential delegation after redistricting: 30 R – 8 D (78.9%-21.1%) 2024 vote share: Trump: 56.1%, Harris: 42.5% Texas Republicans were the first to heed Trump’s redistricting demands, drawing a new map that aims to flip five seats. A three-judge panel blocked the new map as an unconstitutional racial gerrymandering under the 15th Amendment. But the Supreme Court came to the GOP’s rescue, staying the decision in a shadow docket order and later reversing it. Missouri Congressional delegation today: 6 R – 2 D (75%-25%) Potential delegation after redistricting: 7 R – 1 D (87.5%-12.5%) 2024 vote share: Trump: 58.5%, Harris: 40.1% State courts in Missouri cleared the way for the GOP’s new map in March. Opponents of the gerrymander have submitted enough signatures to get a measure repealing it onto the ballot. But the new map, which splits a Kansas City area district held by Rep. Emanuel Cleaver II (D), looks likely to be used for the midterms. North Carolina Congressional delegation today: 10 R – 4 D (71.4%-28.6%) Potential delegation after redistricting: 11 R – 3 D (84.6%-15.4%) 2024 vote share: Trump: 50.9%, Harris: 47.65% After North Carolina elected a 7-7 congressional delegation in 2022, the new GOP-majority North Carolina Supreme Court legalized partisan gerrymandering in 2023, leading state lawmakers to redraw the congressional map ahead of the 2024 election. The Tar Heel State’s U.S. House delegation is now 10-4 Republican, and under this decade’s second partisan redistricting, it could become 11-3. Ohio Congressional delegation today: 10 R – 5 D (66.7%-33.3%) Potential delegation after redistricting: 12 R – 3 D (80%- 20%) 2024 vote share: Trump: 55.1%, Harris: 43.9% Ohio’s redistricting was one of the few this cycle not directly tied to Trump’s gerrymandering push. The state’s GOP-dominated General Assembly adopted a partisan map in 2021, meaning under a state law adopted via referendum in 2018, it would remain valid for just two cycles. The Ohio Redistricting Commission drafted an even more pro-Republican map last year, which Democrats decided to accept rather than risk a worse gerrymandering. But a Blue Wave in November could neutralize the GOP’s advantages. The new map creates 12 districts where Republicans outperformed Democrats across statewide races between 2016 and 2024, and three where Democrats captured more votes on average. Seven of those GOP-leaning districts would be considered competitive, while one of the Democratic-leaning districts — the 13th, held by Rep. Emilia Sykes (D) — would be a toss-up. Florida Congressional delegation today: 20 R – 8 D (71.4%-28.6%) Potential delegation after redistricting: 24 R – 4 D(85.7%- 14.3%) 2024 vote share: Trump: 56.1%, Harris: 42.9% Florida lawmakers adopted their new congressional map just hours after the Supreme Court handed down its decision in Callais. The redraw faces multiple legal challengers, who contend it violates the state constitution’s ban on partisan gerrymandering that voters adopted in 2010. But the state supreme court, dominated by Gov. Ron DeSantis’s (R) appointees, weakened that amendment in a ruling last year that upheld Florida’s last pro-Republican, anti-minority redistricting in 2022. It’s unlikely the legal challenges will succeed. Republican redraws likely before midterms Subject to state legislative action and legal challenges Louisiana Congressional delegation today: 4 R – 2 D (66.7%-33.3%) Potential delegation after redistricting: 6 R – 0 D (100%-0%) 2024 vote share: Trump: 60.2%, Harris: 38.2% Just a day after Callais, Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry (R) declared an “emergency” and halted U.S. House primaries, even though tens of thousands of absentee ballots had already been cast. There are now multiple lawsuits challenging the state’s initial steps toward a redraw, which could see either one or both of its majority-minority districts, which are currently represented by Democrats, eliminated. Tennessee Congressional delegation today: 8 R – 1 D (88.9%-10.1%) Potential delegation after redistricting: 9 R – 0 D (100%-0%) 2024 vote share: Trump: 64.1%, Harris: 34.4% Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee (R) called a special legislative session last week to review and redraw the state’s congressional map, targeting the state’s lone majority-Black district in Memphis, held by Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen. On Thursday night, Lee signed into law a new map that “cracks” Memphis into three Republican-leaning districts. The NAACP filed a lawsuit immediately afterwards to block the new gerrymander, and more are expected. Alabama Congressional delegation today: 5 R – 2 D (71.4%-28.6%) Potential delegation after redistricting: 7 R – 0 D (100%-0%) 2024 vote share: Trump: 64.5%, Harris: 31.4% Alabama’s redraw attempt may be the most chaotic of the cycle. The state is moving forward with its previously scheduled primary elections on May 19, even as the legislature convenes for a last-second session to consider a redistricting that could see the elimination of either one or two of its majority-minority districts, both currently held by Democrats. That’s despite the fact Alabama is still bound by a court-ordered agreement to use its current remedial congressional map until 2030. More lawsuits are expected. The state senate voted for the new map Thursday night and the house is expected to quickly follow. South Carolina Congressional delegation today: 6 R – 1 D (85.7%-14.3%) Potential delegation after redistricting: 7 R – 0 D (100%-0%) 2024 vote share: Trump: 58.2%, Harris: 40.3% After South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster (R), declined to call a special session to redraw the state’s congressional map, the House took the extraordinary step of passing sine die amendment allowing lawmakers to return after adjournment to take up redistricting. The measure now heads to state Senate, where Republicans still need a two-thirds vote to move forward with redistricting. While the GOP has a supermajority in both chambers, just a few defectors would stop an attempted redraw to eliminate the lone district held by a Democrat, Rep. Jim Clyburn. However, the state is already heavily gerrymandered, making it difficult for Republicans to draw an even-more-favorable map that wouldn’t potentially backfire in a “dummymander.” Democratic Response California Congressional delegation today: 43 D – 9 R (82.7%-17.3%) Potential delegation after redistricting: 48 D – 4 R(92.3%-7.7%) 2024 vote share: Harris: 58.5%, Trump: 38.3% After Texas announced it would heed Trump’s call for widespread GOP map-rigging ahead of the midterms, California Democrats were the first to fire back. The legislature rushed through a voter referendum to suspend the state’s normal map-drawing provisions and allow a Democratic gerrymander to counteract Republican redraws, which passed by a wide margin. The U.S. Supreme Court issued an order in February allowing the new maps to go ahead. Unique Utah Utah Congressional delegation today: 4 R – 0 D (100%-0%) Potential delegation after redistricting: 3 R – 1 D (75%-25%)