Map shows Trump’s approval rating in every state on his birthday

As President Donald Trump celebrates his 80th birthday today, new polling shows a state-by-state map that still follows familiar partisan lines—but with weaker margins than at the start of his second term. The figures come from Civiqs’ rolling online tracking poll of registered voters, taken from a rolling sample of 110,353 registered voters from January 20, 2025, through June 11, 2026. Newsweek compared state results from January 20, 2025, Trump’s first day back in office, with the latest figures available as of June 11, 2026. Net approval is calculated by subtracting disapproval from approval. Read More on Politics Key Points Trump is underwater in most states as he reaches his birthday, with a net approval negative across much of the battleground map Kentucky has seen the sharpest decline since the start of his second term, followed by Montana and Idaho Several states that began his term in positive territory, including Florida, Ohio and Texas, are now net negative Deep-red states still form Trump’s strongest base, but many of those margins have narrowed sharply since January 2025 Younger voters, independents and women remain among the groups most negative on Trump in the latest national Civiqs tracker Nationally, Trump’s approval stands at 36 percent, with 59 percent disapproving. That leaves him clearly underwater overall, and the state map shows the same pattern: strongest in Republican strongholds, deeply negative in blue states, and under pressure across much of the battleground map. What’s Driving the Numbers The national demographic breakdown helps explain why the state map looks the way it does. Trump’s weakest numbers come among younger voters. Among adults aged 18 to 34, just 21 percent approve while 72 percent disapprove. Among those aged 35 to 49, approval is 29 percent, and disapproval is 64 percent. Independents are also strongly negative, with 28 percent approving and 64 percent disapproving. Women disapprove by a 65-to-30 margin, while men are more divided at 52-to-42. Education is another clear fault line. Among postgraduates, Trump’s approval is 25 percent, and disapproval is 71 percent. Among non-college graduates, the gap is narrower at 39 approve to 55 disapprove. Those splits help explain why Trump’s standing remains so much stronger in parts of the Republican heartland than in more highly educated, urban and competitive states. Deep Red States Still Back Trump—But by Less Trump’s strongest ratings still come from heavily Republican states, but many of those early advantages have narrowed. Wyoming remains his best state, with a net approval rating of +25. North Dakota follows at +15, then South Dakota at +14 and West Virginia at +13. Alabama and Idaho each stand at +11, while Oklahoma is at +10. That still leaves Trump above water across much of the red-state interior. But compared with the start of his second term, the erosion is striking. In January 2025, Wyoming opened at +47. Idaho began at +34. West Virginia was at +35. Those states are still positive now, but by much slimmer margins. Kentucky offers an especially sharp example. Trump started his second term with a net approval rating of +23 there. It now stands at -4, wiping out its earlier advantage. Swing States Have Moved Further Against Him The most politically significant movement is in the states that tend to decide national elections. Florida now sits at -13 net approval, down from +9 on January 20, 2025. Ohio has dropped from +8 to -14. Nevada has fallen from an even 0 to -20. North Carolina has gone from 0 to -15. Pennsylvania has moved from -3 to -17. Arizona now stands at -13, Wisconsin at -16 and Michigan at -21. Georgia sits at -20. Those are not landslide deficits, but they point in the same direction: Trump is underwater across much of the battleground map, and in several cases, states that were once positive or even are now clearly negative. The States Where Trump Has Fallen Most Every state in this tracker shows a lower net approval rating than on the day Trump began his second term. The biggest declines are concentrated not just in Democratic states, but in places that initially gave him some of his strongest backing. The sharpest drops are: Kentucky: +23 to -4, down 27 points Montana: +25 to +1, down 24 points Idaho: +34 to +11, down 23 points Florida: +9 to -13, down 22 points Ohio: +8 to -14, down 22 points West Virginia: +35 to +13, down 22 points Wyoming: +47 to +25, down 22 points Kansas: +23 to +2, down 21 points Nebraska: +18 to -3, down 21 points Oklahoma: +31 to +10, down 21 points Texas: +6 to -15, down 21 points Arkansas: +26 to +6, down 20 points Nevada: 0 to -20, down 20 points Tennessee: +25 to +5, down 20 points That list says a lot about where the map has changed most. The biggest losses are not concentrated in safe blue states, where Trump was already unpopular. They are often coming from red or red-leaning states where his early support was much stronger. Deep Blue States Remain Firmly Opposed At the other end of the map, Trump’s weakest states remain overwhelmingly negative. Hawaii posts the lowest net approval at -61, followed by Vermont at -56 and Maryland at -51. California and Massachusetts both stand at -46. Oregon is at -42, Washington is at -41, and New York is at -40. In these states, the story is not a dramatic collapse so much as entrenched opposition holding firm. Trump was already deeply underwater there at the start of his term, and he remains so now. The Middle of the Map Has Tightened A notable feature of the current map is how many states now cluster close to the line between positive and negative territory. Indiana is just +1. Montana is +1. Kansas is +2. Mississippi is exactly 0. Louisiana is -3. Nebraska is -3. Missouri and Kentucky are both at -4. That matters because it suggests a map that is less stable than it looks at first glance. The broad partisan divide remains, but many state-level margins are thinner than at the start of the term. A Birthday Map That Looks Familiar—But Weaker Trump’s political map still looks broadly recognizable. His strongest states are still in the Republican heartland. His weakest remain concentrated on the coasts and in solidly Democratic territory. What has changed is the size of the margins. At the start of his second term, Trump was comfortably positive across much of the red-state map and roughly competitive in several battlegrounds. Now, many of those same states are either narrowly positive, dead even or clearly negative. The result is a map that preserves the same broad partisan shape, but with less room for error almost everywhere. What the White House Says The White House has pointed to Trump’s 2024 election victory as the clearest measure of public support, with spokesperson Davis Ingle arguing the result reflected a mandate from nearly 80 million voters.