Amir Tsarfati: Tucker Carlson’s Failure — Trump’s Knockout Various interesting polls point to a clear trend: A. T...

Tucker Carlson’s Failure — Trump’s Knockout Various interesting polls point to a clear trend: A. There is no “split” within the MAGA camp — on the contrary, there is an almost Soviet-level consensus around Trump and his decision to strike Iran. B. The war in Iran is not hurting Republicans ahead of the midterm elections — it is actually strengthening them. Here are the data (to be detailed in follow-up posts): 1. NBC poll: One hundred percent support among MAGA supporters for Trump. Yes — 100%. This figure was also echoed by CNN. In other words, two networks highly hostile to Trump present a president who has complete control over his base. The share of people identifying with MAGA has also grown since the election. 2. Republican poll (New York Post): Who do you identify with — Trump or Carlson and Megyn Kelly? The result is decisive: Trump 84%, Carlson and Kelly 6%. It turns out that clicks and Spotify listens do not necessarily translate into real influence among the public. Ironically, a phenomenon similar to traditional media in recent years is emerging: a loud and vocal minority holds the microphone and claims to speak for a silent majority that actually rejects it. This frustration is causing Tucker and his circle to lose composure and drift away from the MAGA “mothership” toward the more fringe territories of the far left and pro-jihadist narratives. The current investigation into Kent’s leaks to Carlson may become the official break between Carlson and the Republican Party. 3. YouGov–Economist poll on the November midterms (the most important issue in U.S. politics): Since the start of the war, Republicans have narrowed the gap with Democrats in the race for control of the House — from a 7-point Democratic lead in mid-February to just 2 points in mid-March. Earlier this month, I referenced a Harvard/Harris poll conducted before the war that showed a tie. Democrats still lead in betting markets and most polls, but the trend is favorable for Republicans. As noted recently, Republicans have only upside potential — historically, since World War II, only once has a second-term president managed to keep his party’s majority in the House (Clinton and the Democrats in 1998). If Trump becomes the second, it would be a phenomenal achievement for him and the Republican Party. 4. Finally (not a poll): The major unknown is Vice President J.D. Vance, who is closely tied to Carlson and issued a very lukewarm statement regarding Kent’s resignation. His public profile during the current war with Iran has been relatively low, and it is not at all certain that he supports the campaign. Recently, he has lost some ground in the (so far quiet) race between him and Marco Rubio to become Trump’s successor for 2028. It is far too early to write off Vance’s chances of becoming the Republican nominee in two and a half years, but his political trajectory will likely indicate the direction the Republican Party will take in the coming years. (Gilad Zwick on X)